Exploring the validity of routine individuated service data for antenatal HIV surveillance in the Western Cape.

Background: In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources through the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC). This enables the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal HIV seroprevalence. We evaluated the validity of these data compared to aggregated program data and population-wide sentinel antenatal HIV seroprevalence surveys for the Western Cape province. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies identified in the PHDC from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. HIV prevalence estimates were triangulated and compared with available survey estimates and aggregated programmatic data from registers as recorded in the District Health Information System. Provincial, district-level and age-group HIV prevalence estimates were compared between data systems using correlation coefficients, absolute differences and trend analysis. Results: Of the 977800 pregnancies ascertained, PHDC HIV prevalence estimates from 2011-2013 were widely disparate from aggregate and survey data (due to incomplete electronic data), whereas from 2014 onwards, estimates were within the 95% confidence interval of survey estimates, and closely correlated to aggregate data estimates (r = 0.8; p = 0.01), with an average prevalence difference of 0.4%. PHDC data show a slow but steady increase in provincial HIV prevalence from 16.7% in 2015 to 18.6% in 2020. The highest HIV prevalence was in the Cape Metro district (20.3%) Prevalence estimates by age group were comparable between sentinel surveys and PHDC from 2015 onwards, with prevalence estimates stable over time among younger age-groups (15-24 years) but increased among older age-groups (> 34 years). Conclusions: This study compares sentinel seroprevalence surveys with both register-based aggregate data and consolidated individuated administrative data. We show that in this setting linked individuated data may be reliably used for HIV surveillance and provide more granular estimates with greater efficiency than seroprevalence surveys and register-based aggregate data.

ART history prior to conception: trends and association with postpartum disengagement from HIV care in Khayelitsha, South Africa (2013-2019): a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, the expansion of HIV treatment eligibility has resulted in an increase in people with antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience prior to pregnancy but little is known about postpartum engagement in care in this population. We examined differences in disengagement from HIV care after delivery by maternal ART history before conception. METHODS: We analysed data from people living with HIV (aged 15-49) in Khayelitsha, South Africa, with ≥1 live birth between April 2013 and March 2019. We described trends over time in ART history prior to estimated conception, classifying ART history groups as: (A) on ART with no disengagement (>270 days with no evidence of HIV care); (B) returned before pregnancy following disengagement; (C) restarted ART in pregnancy after disengagement; and (D) ART new start in pregnancy. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional-hazards models (adjusted for maternal age, number of pregnancy records and year of delivery) to examine the time to disengagement from delivery to 2 years postpartum. RESULTS: Among 7309 pregnancies (in 6680 individuals), the proportion on ART (A) increased from 19% in 2013 to 41% in 2019. The proportions of those who returned (B) and restarted (C) increased from 2% to 13% and from 2% to 10%, respectively. There was a corresponding decline in the proportion of new starts (D) from 77% in 2013 to 36% in 2019. In the first recorded pregnancy per person in the study period, 26% (95% CI 25-27%) had disengaged from care by 1 year and 34% (95% CI 33-36%) by 2 years postpartum. Individuals who returned (B: aHR 2.10, 95% CI 1.70-2.60), restarted (C: aHR 3.32, 95% CI 2.70-4.09) and newly started ART (D: aHR 2.41, 95% CI 2.12-2.74) had increased hazards of postpartum disengagement compared to those on ART (A). CONCLUSIONS: There is a growing population of people with ART experience prior to conception and postpartum disengagement varies substantially by ART history. Antenatal care presents an important opportunity to understand prior ART experiences and an entry into interventions for strengthened engagement in HIV care.

Can routine antenatal data be used to assess HIV antiretroviral therapy coverage among pregnant women? Evaluating the validity of different data sources in the Western Cape, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Accurate measurement of antenatal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in pregnancy is imperative in tracking progress towards elimination of vertical HIV transmission. In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources, enabling the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal antiretroviral coverage. We evaluated the validity of different methods for measuring ART coverage among pregnant women. METHODS: We compared self-reported ART data from a 2014 antenatal survey with laboratory assay data from a sub-sample within the survey population. Thereafter, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies consolidated in the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. ART coverage estimates were triangulated with available antenatal survey estimates, aggregated programmatic data from registers recorded in the District Health Information System (DHIS) and Thembisa modelling estimates. RESULTS: Self-reported ART in the 2014 sentinel antenatal survey (n = 1434) had high sensitivity (83.5%), specificity (94.5%) and agreement (k = 0.8) with the gold standard of laboratory analysis of ART. Based on linked routine data, ART coverage by the time of delivery in mothers of live births increased from 67.4% in 2011 to 94.7% by 2019. This pattern of increasing antenatal ART coverage was also seen in the DHIS data, and estimated by the Thembisa model, but was less consistent in the antenatal survey data. CONCLUSION: This study is the first in a high-burden HIV setting to compare sentinel ART surveillance data with consolidated individuated administrative data. Although self-report in survey conditions showed high validity, more recent data sources based on self-report and medical records may be uncertain with increasing ART coverage over time. Linked individuated data may offer a promising option for ART coverage estimation with greater granularity and efficiency.

Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: After successful intensive interventions to rapidly increase HIV awareness, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and viral suppression, HIV programmes in eastern and southern Africa are considering scaling back of some interventions, such as widespread general population HIV testing. We aimed to model whether scaling back of general population HIV testing in South Africa could result in a resurgence of the HIV epidemic or substantial slowing of declines in HIV incidence, resulting in increased long-term ART. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the Thembisa 4.5 model (a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission in South Africa) to project the South African HIV epidemic to 2100 assuming the continuation of 2022 epidemiological conditions and HIV programme implementation. We assessed how implementing reductions in general population HIV testing services in 2025 (while maintaining antenatal, symptom-based, and risk-based testing modalities and other HIV prevention services at 2022 levels) would affect HIV incidence and prevalence among people aged 15-49 years, the year in which incidence would reach one per 1000 people aged 15-49 years (the threshold for virtual elimination of HIV), and associated costs, as well as numbers of additional new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. We also modelled the effects of delaying reductions in general population testing services by 5-year increments. Additionally, we modelled the potential effects of reductions in general population testing services in combination with increases or decreases in ART interruption rates (ie, the annual rate at which people who are on ART discontinue ART) and condom usage in 2025-35. FINDINGS: If general population HIV testing services and the HIV risk environment of 2022 were maintained, we projected that HIV incidence would steadily decline from 4·95 (95% CI 4·40-5·34) per 1000 population in 2025 to 0·14 (0·05-0·31) per 1000 in 2100, and that the so-called virtual elimination threshold of less than one new infection per 1000 population per year would be reached in 2055 (95% CI 2051-2060). Scaling back of general population HIV testing services by 25%, 50%, or 75% in 2025 delayed time to reaching the virtual elimination threshold by 5, 13, or 35 years, respectively, whereas complete cessation of general population testing would result in the threshold not being attained by 2100. Although the incidence of HIV continued to fall when general HIV testing services were reduced, our modelling suggested that, with reductions of between 25% and 100%, between 396 000 (95% CI 299 000-474 000) and 2·50 million (1·97 million-2·98 million) additional HIV infections and between 115 000 (94 000-135 000) and 795 000 (670 000-926 000) additional AIDS-related deaths would occur between 2025 and 2075, depending on the extent of reduction in testing. Delaying reductions in general population HIV testing services for 5-25 years mitigated some of these effects. HIV testing accounted for only 5% of total programmatic costs at baseline; reducing testing moderately reduced short-term total annual costs, but increased annual costs after 25 years. Increases in ART interruption and reductions in condom usage were projected to slow the decline in incidence and increase the coverage of general HIV testing services required to control transmission but did not cause rapid resurgence in HIV infections. INTERPRETATION: Our modelling suggests that scaling back of general population HIV testing would not result in a resurgence of HIV infections, but would delay attainment of incidence-reduction targets and result in long-term increases in HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths, and costs (via increased need for ART provision). HIV programmes need to balance short-term potential resource savings with long-term epidemic control objectives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends and factors associated with illicit drug use in South Africa: Findings from multiple national population-based household surveys, 2002-2017.

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug use results in considerable global morbidity, but there is little data on its trends and factors associated with it in sub-Saharan Africa. We consider these questions using national data from South Africa for 2002-2017. METHODS: We analysed data among individuals aged 15 years or older from five national population-based household surveys in South Africa (2002-2017; n = 89,113). Recent drug use was defined as the last three-months use of illicit drugs, i.e., any use of cannabis, cocaine, amphetamine, inhalants, sedatives, hallucinogens, opioids, and/or other illicit drugs. Time trends in recent drug use were assessed using logistic regression. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the association between recent drug use and socio-demographic factors and between drug use and sexual risk behaviours, HIV-related and other well-being variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of recent drug use increased from 1·5% to 10·0% from 2002 to 2017, driven by increases in cannabis use (1·5% to 7·8%) and use of opioids (0·01% to 1·6%), cocaine (0·02% to 1·8%), or amphetamines (0·1% to 1·5%). In adjusted analyses, male gender, younger age, living in urban areas, mixed-ancestry or white ethnicity (compared to black-African), and unemployment were positively associated with recent drug use. Recent drug use was associated with: multiple sexual partners (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1·80-2·51); sexual debut before 15 years old (aOR 1·70, 95%CI: 1·29-2·23); hazardous/harmful alcohol use (aOR 2·50, 95%CI: 2·14-2·93) or alcohol dependence (aOR 3·33, 95%CI 2·92-3·80); ever experiencing intimate partner violence (aOR 1·56, 95%CI 1·12-2·17); psychological distress (aOR 1·53, 95%CI: 1·28-1·82); and lower chance of ever testing for HIV (aOR 0·89, 95%CI 0·80-1·00). Recent drug use was not associated with HIV positivity, condom use or being on antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSION: Illicit drug use has increased substantially in South Africa and is associated with numerous socio-demographic characteristics, higher sexual risk behaviours and other well-being variables.

Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise.

Introduction: In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical models that assume certain demographic and behavioural characteristics like age and duration of sex work to remain constant over time. We reviewed this assumption for female sex workers in South Africa. Methods: We reviewed studies that reported estimates on either the age or the duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to synthesize reported estimates and to study time trends. In a simulation exercise, we also investigated the potential impact of the "constant age and sex work duration"-assumption on estimates of HIV incidence. Results: We included 24 different studies, conducted between 1996 and 2019, contributing 42 estimates on female sex worker age and 27 estimates on sex work duration. There was evidence suggesting an increase in both the duration of sex work and the age of female sex workers over time. According to the fitted models, over each decade the expected duration of sex work increased by 55.6% (95%-credible interval [CrI]: 23.5%-93.9%) and the expected age of female sex workers increased by 14.3% (95%-CrI: 9.1%-19.1%). Over the 23-year period, the predicted mean duration of sex work increased from 2.7 years in 1996 to 7.4 years in 2019, while the predicted mean age increased from 26.4 years to 32.3 years. Allowing for these time trends in the simulation exercise resulted in a notable decline in estimated HIV incidence rate among sex workers over time. This decline was significantly more pronounced than when assuming a constant age and duration of sex work. Conclusions: In South Africa, age and duration of sex work in female sex workers increased over time. While this trend might be influenced by factors like expanding community mobilization and improved rights advocacy, the ongoing criminalisation, stigmatisation of sex work and lack of alternative employment opportunities could also be contributing. It is important to account for these changes when estimating HIV indicators in female sex workers.

Investigating the Associations between Drought, Poverty, High-Risk Sexual Behaviours, and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of drought in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV prevalence is high. Drought could increase HIV transmission through various mediating mechanisms; we investigated these associations. We used data on people aged 15-59 from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys from 2016 in Eswatini, Lesotho, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Survey data were geospatially linked to precipitation data for 2014-2016, with local droughts defined as cumulative rainfall between 2014 and 2016 being in < 15th percentile of all 2-year periods over 1981-2016. Using multivariable logistic regression, stratified by sex and rural/urban residence, we examined associations between (a) drought and poverty, (b) wealth quintiles and sexual behaviours (transactional, high-risk, and intergenerational sex), (c) sexual behaviours and recently acquiring HIV, and (d) drought and recent HIV. Among 102,081 people, 31.5% resided in areas affected by drought during 2014-2016. Experiencing drought was positively associated with poverty for women and men in rural, but not urban, areas. For each group, increasing wealth was negatively associated with transactional sex. For rural women, intergenerational sex was positively associated with wealth. Women reporting each sexual behaviour had higher odds of recent HIV, with strong associations seen for high-risk sex, and, for urban women, intergenerational sex, with weaker associations among men. Women in rural areas who had been exposed to drought had higher odds of having recently acquired HIV (2.10 [95%CI: 1.17-3.77]), but not women in urban areas, or men. Droughts could potentially increase HIV transmission through increasing poverty and then sexual risk behaviours, particularly among women in rural areas.

A model-based approach to estimating the prevalence of disease combinations in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data. METHODS: We developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates were integrated with the ORs from the meta-regressions in a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of each condition combination. RESULTS: The strongest disease associations in South Africa are between COPD and asthma (OR 14.6, 95% CI 10.3 to 19.9), COPD and IHD (OR 9.2, 95% CI 8.3 to 10.2) and IHD and stroke (OR 7.2, 95% CI 5.9 to 8.4). The most prevalent condition combinations in individuals aged 15+ are hypertension and arthritis (7.6%, 95% CI 5.8% to 9.5%), hypertension and diabetes (7.5%, 95% CI 6.4% to 8.6%) and hypertension and HIV (4.8%, 95% CI 3.3% to 6.6%). The average numbers of comorbidities are greatest in the case of COPD (2.3, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.6), stroke (2.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.4) and IHD (1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2). CONCLUSION: South Africa has high levels of HIV, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis, by international standards, and these are reflected in the most prevalent condition combinations. However, less prevalent conditions such as COPD, stroke and IHD contribute disproportionately to the multimorbidity burden, with high rates of comorbidity. This modelling approach can be used in other settings to characterise the most important disease combinations and levels of comorbidity.

Updated Data and Methods for the 2023 UNAIDS HIV Estimates.

ABSTRACT: Each year, supported by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), country teams across the globe produce estimates that chart the state of their HIV epidemics. In 2023, HIV estimates were available for 174 countries, accounting for 99% of the global population, of which teams from 150 countries actively engaged in this process. The methods used to derive these estimates are developed under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling, and Projections (www.epidem.org). Updates to these methods and epidemiological analyses that inform parameters and assumptions are documented in this supplement.

New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.

BACKGROUND: Previously, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated proportions of adult new HIV infections among key populations (KPs) in the last calendar year, globally and in 8 regions. We refined and updated these, for 2010 and 2022, using country-level trend models informed by national data. METHODS: Infections among 15-49 year olds were estimated for sex workers (SWs), male clients of female SW, men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender women (TGW), and non-KP sex partners of these groups. Transmission models used were Goals (71 countries), AIDS Epidemic Model (13 Asian countries), Optima (9 European and Central Asian countries), and Thembisa (South Africa). Statistical Estimation and Projection Package fits were used for 15 countries. For 40 countries, new infections in 1 or more KPs were approximated from first-time diagnoses by the mode of transmission. Infection proportions among nonclient partners came from Goals, Optima, AIDS Epidemic Model, and Thembisa. For remaining countries and groups not represented in models, median proportions by KP were extrapolated from countries modeled within the same region. RESULTS: Across 172 countries, estimated proportions of new adult infections in 2010 and 2022 were both 7.7% for SW, 11% and 20% for MSM, 0.72% and 1.1% for TGW, 6.8% and 8.0% for PWID, 12% and 10% for clients, and 5.3% and 8.2% for nonclient partners. In sub-Saharan Africa, proportions of new HIV infections decreased among SW, clients, and non-KP partners but increased for PWID; elsewhere these groups' 2010-to-2022 differences were opposite. For MSM and TGW, the proportions increased across all regions. CONCLUSIONS: KPs continue to have disproportionately high HIV incidence.

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates. METHODS: We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence. Dynamic HIV transmission model estimates of HIV incidence and percentage of new infections among key populations were extracted from 94 country applications of 9 mathematical models. We compared these with UNAIDS-reported distribution of new infections, implied key population HIV incidence and incidence-to-prevalence ratios. RESULTS: Across SSA, empirical FSW HIV incidence was 8.6-fold (95% confidence interval: 5.7 to 12.9) higher than total population female 15-39 year incidence, and MSM HIV incidence was 41.8-fold (95% confidence interval: 21.9 to 79.6) male 15-29 year incidence. Combined with KPSE, these implied 12% of new HIV infections in 2021 were among FSW and MSM (5% and 7% respectively). In sensitivity analysis varying KPSE proportions within 95% uncertainty range, the proportion of new infections among FSW and MSM was between 9% and 19%. Insufficient data were available to estimate PWID incidence rate ratios. Across 94 models, median proportion of new infections among FSW, MSM, and PWID was 6.4% (interquartile range 3.2%-11.7%), both much lower than the 25% reported by UNAIDS. CONCLUSION: Empirically derived and model-based estimates of HIV incidence confirm dramatically higher HIV risk among key populations in SSA. Estimated proportions of new infections among key populations in 2021 were sensitive to population size assumptions and were substantially lower than estimates reported by UNAIDS.

Differences in Breastfeeding Duration by Maternal HIV Status: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding improves child survival but is a source of mother-to-child HIV transmission among women with unsuppressed HIV infection. Estimated HIV incidence in children is sensitive to breastfeeding duration among mothers living with HIV (MLHIV). Breastfeeding duration may vary according to maternal HIV status. SETTING: Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative household surveys conducted during 2003-2019 that included HIV testing and elicited breastfeeding practices. We fitted survival models of breastfeeding duration by country, year, and maternal HIV status for 4 sub-Saharan African regions (Eastern, Central, Southern, and Western). RESULTS: Data were obtained from 65 surveys in 31 countries. In 2010, breastfeeding in the first month of life ("initial breastfeeding") among MLHIV ranged from 69.1% (95% credible interval: 68-79.9) in Southern Africa to 93.4% (92.7-98.0) in Western Africa. Median breastfeeding duration among MLHIV was the shortest in Southern Africa at 15.6 (14.2-16.3) months and the longest in Eastern Africa at 22.0 (21.7-22.5) months. By comparison, HIV-negative mothers were more likely to breastfeed initially (91.0%-98.7% across regions) and for longer duration (median 18.3-24.6 months across regions). Initial breastfeeding and median breastfeeding duration decreased during 2005-2015 in most regions and did not increase in any region regardless of maternal HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: MLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to breastfeed initially and stop breastfeeding sooner than HIV-negative mothers. Since 2020, UNAIDS-supported HIV estimates have accounted for this shorter breastfeeding exposure among HIV-exposed children. MLHIV need support to enable optimal breastfeeding practices and to adhere to antiretroviral therapy for HIV treatment and prevention of postnatal mother-to-child transmission.

Estimation of Improvements in Mortality in Spectrum Among Adults With HIV Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality rates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries continue to decline. We compared mortality rates among PLHIV on ART in Europe for 2016-2020 with Spectrum's estimates. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Module in Spectrum is a compartmental HIV epidemic model coupled with a demographic population projection model. We used national Spectrum projections developed for the 2022 HIV estimates round to calculate mortality rates among PLHIV on ART, adjusting to the age/country distribution of PLHIV starting ART from 1996 to 2020 in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)'s European cohorts. RESULTS: In the ART-CC, 11,504 of 162,835 PLHIV died. Between 1996-1999 and 2016-2020, AIDS-related mortality in the ART-CC decreased from 8.8 (95% CI: 7.6 to 10.1) to 1.0 (0.9-1.2) and from 5.9 (4.4-8.1) to 1.1 (0.9-1.4) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Non-AIDS-related mortality decreased from 9.1 (7.9-10.5) to 6.1 (5.8-6.5) and from 7.0 (5.2-9.3) to 4.8 (4.3-5.2) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Spectrum among men were near ART-CC estimates for 2016-2020 (Spectrum: 7.02-7.47 deaths per 1000 person-years) but approximately 20% lower in women (Spectrum: 4.66-4.70). Adjusted excess mortality rates in Spectrum were 2.5-fold higher in women and 3.1-3.4-fold higher in men in comparison to the ART-CC's AIDS-specific mortality rates. DISCUSSION: Spectrum's all-cause mortality estimates among PLHIV are consistent with age/country-controlled mortality observed in ART-CC, with some underestimation of mortality among women. Comparing results suggest that 60%-70% of excess deaths among PLHIV on ART in Spectrum are from non-AIDS causes.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.

BACKGROUND: Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios"). We recalculated these ratios using dynamic transmission models. SETTING: One hundred seventy-eight settings (106 countries). METHODS: Infection ratios for FSW, MSM, PWID, TGW, and clients of FSW were estimated from 12 models for 2020. RESULTS: Median model estimates of infection ratios were 0.7 (interquartile range: 0.5-1.0; n = 172 estimates) and 1.2 (0.8-1.8; n = 127) for acquisitions from FSW clients and transmissions from FSW to all their non-KP partners, respectively, which were comparable with the previous UNAIDS assumptions (0.2-1.5 across regions). Model estimates for female partners of MSM were 0.5 (0.2-0.8; n = 20) and 0.3 (0.2-0.4; n = 10) for partners of PWID across settings in Eastern and Southern Africa, lower than the corresponding UNAIDS assumptions (0.9 and 0.8, respectively). The few available model estimates for TGW were higher [5.1 (1.2-7.0; n = 8)] than the UNAIDS assumptions (0.1-0.3). Model estimates for non-FSW partners of FSW clients in Western and Central Africa were high (1.7; 1.0-2.3; n = 29). CONCLUSIONS: Ratios of new infections among non-KP partners relative to KP were high, confirming the importance of better addressing prevention and treatment needs among KP as central to reducing overall HIV incidence.

Temporal Trends and Determinants of HIV Testing at Antenatal Care in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Surveys (2005-2021).

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), integrating HIV testing into antenatal care (ANC) has been crucial toward reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. With the introduction of new testing modalities, we explored temporal trends in HIV testing within and outside of ANC and identified sociodemographic determinants of testing during ANC. METHODS: We analyzed data from 139 nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2021, including more than 2.2 million women aged 15-49 years in 41 SSA countries. We extracted data on women's recent HIV testing history (<24 months), by modality (ie, at ANC versus outside of ANC) and sociodemographic variables (ie, age, socioeconomic status, education level, number of births, urban/rural). We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate HIV testing coverage and the proportion of those that tested as part of ANC. RESULTS: HIV testing coverage (<24 months) increased substantially between 2005 and 2021 from 8% to 38%, with significant variations between countries and subregions. Two percent of women received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey interview as part of ANC in 2005 and 11% in 2021. Among women who received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey, the probability of testing at ANC was significantly greater for multiparous, adolescent girls, rural women, women in the poorest wealth quintile, and women in West and Central Africa. CONCLUSION: ANC testing remains an important component to achieving high levels of HIV testing coverage and benefits otherwise underserved women, which could prove instrumental to progress toward universal knowledge of HIV status in SSA.

Substantial but spatially heterogeneous progress in male circumcision for HIV prevention in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of male HIV acquisition by 60%. Programmes to provide VMMCs for HIV prevention have been introduced in sub-Saharan African countries with high HIV burden. Traditional circumcision is also a long-standing male coming-of-age ritual, but practices vary considerably across populations. Accurate estimates of circumcision coverage by age, type, and time at subnational levels are required for planning and delivering VMMCs to meet targets and evaluating their impacts on HIV incidence. METHODS: We developed a Bayesian competing risks time-to-event model to produce region-age-time-type specific probabilities and coverage of male circumcision with probabilistic uncertainty. The model jointly synthesises data from household surveys and health system data on the number of VMMCs conducted. We demonstrated the model using data from five household surveys and VMMC programme data to produce estimates of circumcision coverage for 52 districts in South Africa between 2008 and 2019. RESULTS: Nationally, in 2008, 24.1% (95% CI: 23.4-24.8%) of men aged 15-49 were traditionally circumcised and 19.4% (18.9-20.0%) were medically circumcised. Between 2010 and 2019, 4.25 million VMMCs were conducted. Circumcision coverage among men aged 15-49 increased to 64.0% (63.2-64.9%) and medical circumcision coverage to 42% (41.3-43.0%). Circumcision coverage varied widely across districts, ranging from 13.4 to 86.3%. The average age of traditional circumcision ranged between 13 and 19 years, depending on local cultural practices. CONCLUSION: South Africa has made substantial, but heterogeneous, progress towards increasing medical circumcision coverage. Detailed subnational information on coverage and practices can guide programmes to identify unmet need to achieve national and international targets.

Voluntary medical male circumcision reduces the risk of male HIV acquisition. Programmes to provide circumcisions for HIV prevention have been introduced in sub-Saharan African countries with high HIV burden. Estimates of circumcision coverage are needed for planning and delivering circumcisions to meet targets and evaluate their impacts on HIV incidence. We developed a model to integrate date from both household surveys and health systems on the number of circumcisions conducted, and applied it to understand how the practices and coverage of circumcision are changing in South Africa. National circumcision coverage increased considerably between 2008 and 2019, however, there remains a substantial subnational variation across districts and age groups. Further progress is needed to reach national and international targets.

The potential benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir in pregnant and breastfeeding women and their infants.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) in sub-Saharan Africa have high HIV incidence rates and associated risk of vertical transmission to their infants. Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and injectable PrEP (long-acting cabotegravir, or CAB-LA) can potentially reduce this HIV transmission, but population-level impacts are uncertain. METHODS: We extended a previously developed model of HIV and PrEP in South Africa to allow for variable PrEP duration and preference in PBW. We considered three potential scenarios for PrEP provision to PBW: oral PrEP only, CAB-LA only, and allowing oral/CAB-LA choice, with uptake and retention assumptions informed by South African data, each compared with a 'base' scenario without PrEP for PBW. RESULTS: Without PrEP for PBW, the model estimates 1.31 million new infections will occur between 2025 and 2035 in South African adults and children, including 100 000 in PBW, 16 800 in infants at/before birth, and 35 200 in children through breastmilk. In the oral PrEP-only scenario, these numbers would reduce by 1.2% (95% CI: 0.7-1.7%), 8.6% (4.8-12.9%), 4.0% (2.1-5.8%), and 5.3% (3.0-8.2%) respectively. In the CAB-LA-only scenario, the corresponding reductions would be 6.1% (2.9-9.6%), 41.2% (19.8-65.0%), 12.6% (6.0-19.4%), and 29.5% (13.9-46.8%), respectively, and in the oral/CAB-LA choice scenario, similar reductions would be achieved [5.6% (3.4-8.0%), 39% (23.4-55.9%), 12.4% (7.4-16.8%) and 27.6% (16.5-39.9%) respectively]. CONCLUSION: CAB-LA has the potential to be substantially more effective than oral PrEP in preventing HIV acquisition in PBW and vertical transmission, and can also modestly reduce HIV incidence at a population level.

Pregnancy outcomes following self-reported and objective-measured exposure to oral preexposure prophylaxis in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To compare pregnancy outcomes using self-reported and objective levels of intracellular tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in pregnant women using preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). DESIGN: We enrolled pregnant women >15 years without HIV at first antenatal care visit in an observational cohort study to compare pregnancy outcomes by PrEP use. METHODS: Exposure defined as: any PrEP use [tenofovir disoproxil and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC]) prescription + reported taking PrEP], or objectively-measured TFV-DP in dried blood spots in PrEP-using pregnant women. The primary outcome was a composite of pregnancy loss, preterm birth (<37weeks), low birthweight (<2500 g), small for gestational age ([SGA] ≤ tenth percentile), or neonatal death. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated individual and composite adverse outcomes by self-reported or objectively measured PrEP use adjusting for age, gestational age, gravidity and socio-economic status. RESULTS: Between August 19 and February 23, we followed 1195 pregnant women and ascertained 1145 pregnancy outcomes (96%); 72% ( n  = 826) reported taking PrEP while pregnant, 16% did not take PrEP ( n  = 178), 12% were unconfirmed ( n  = 141). Overall, 94.5% ( n  = 1082) had singleton live births with a median birthweight of 3.2 kg [interquartile range (IQR) = 2.9-3.5], with no difference in pregnancy loss between self-reported PrEP exposed vs. unexposed [4.0 vs. 5.6%; adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.32-1.47]. Composite adverse outcomes did not differ by reported PrEP use (20% for both groups; aOR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.71-1.63). Comparing objective PrEP use (any TFV-DP vs. no TFV-DP or not on PrEP), adverse outcomes did not differ (aOR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.39-1.04), nor did other outcomes including preterm birth nor SGA. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnancy outcomes did not differ by PrEP exposure (self-reported or objective), suggesting real-world efficacy that TDF/FTC as PrEP is safe in pregnancy.

Associations of inter-annual rainfall decreases with subsequent HIV outcomes for persons with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Periods of droughts can lead to decreased food security, and altered behaviours, potentially affecting outcomes on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among persons with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether decreased rainfall is associated with adverse outcomes among PWH on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: Data were combined from 11 clinical cohorts of PWH in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. Adult PWH who had started ART prior to 01/06/2016 and were in follow-up in the year prior to 01/06/2016 were included. Two-year rainfall from June 2014 to May 2016 at the location of each HIV centre was summed and ranked against historical 2-year rainfall amounts (1981-2016) to give an empirical relative percentile rainfall estimate. The IeDEA-SA and rainfall data were combined using each HIV centre's latitude/longitude. In individual-level analyses, multivariable Cox or generalized estimating equation regression models (GEEs) assessed associations between decreased rainfall versus historical levels and four separate outcomes (mortality, CD4 counts < 200 cells/mm3, viral loads > 400 copies/mL, and > 12-month gaps in follow-up) in the two years following the rainfall period. GEEs were used to investigate the association between relative rainfall and monthly numbers of unique visitors per HIV centre. RESULTS: Among 270,708 PWH across 386 HIV centres (67% female, median age 39 [IQR: 32-46]), lower rainfall than usual was associated with higher mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 1.18 [95%CI: 1.07-1.32] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease) and unsuppressed viral loads (adjusted Odds Ratio: 1.05 [1.01-1.09]). Levels of rainfall were not strongly associated with CD4 counts < 200 cell/mm3 or > 12-month gaps in care. HIV centres in areas with less rainfall than usual had lower numbers of PWH visiting them (adjusted Rate Ratio: 0.80 [0.66-0.98] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased rainfall could negatively impact on HIV treatment behaviours and outcomes. Further research is needed to explore the reasons for these effects. Interventions to mitigate the health impact of severe weather events are required.

Comorbidities Incorporated to Improve Prediction for Prevalent Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease in the HABS-HD Study.

BACKGROUND: Blood biomarkers have the potential to transform Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis and monitoring, yet their integration with common medical comorbidities remains insufficiently explored. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to enhance blood biomarkers' sensitivity, specificity, and predictive performance by incorporating comorbidities. We assess this integration's efficacy in diagnostic classification using machine learning, hypothesizing that it can identify a confident set of predictive features. METHODS: We analyzed data from 1,705 participants in the Health and Aging Brain Study-Health Disparities, including 116 AD patients, 261 with mild cognitive impairment, and 1,328 cognitively normal controls. Blood samples were assayed using electrochemiluminescence and single molecule array technology, alongside comorbidity data gathered through clinical interviews and medical records. We visually explored blood biomarker and comorbidity characteristics, developed a Feature Importance and SVM-based Leave-One-Out Recursive Feature Elimination (FI-SVM-RFE-LOO) method to optimize feature selection, and compared four models: Biomarker Only, Comorbidity Only, Biomarker and Comorbidity, and Feature-Selected Biomarker and Comorbidity. RESULTS: The combination model incorporating 17 blood biomarkers and 12 comorbidity variables outperformed single-modal models, with NPV12 at 92.78%, AUC at 67.59%, and Sensitivity at 65.70%. Feature selection led to 22 chosen features, resulting in the highest performance, with NPV12 at 93.76%, AUC at 69.22%, and Sensitivity at 70.69%. Additionally, interpretative machine learning highlighted factors contributing to improved prediction performance. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, combining feature-selected biomarkers and comorbidities enhances prediction performance, while feature selection optimizes their integration. These findings hold promise for understanding AD pathophysiology and advancing preventive treatments.